People at a Democratic event react during an election night event at a hotel on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026.
By Piero Cingari Published on 4 November 2026 - 8:06 GMT+1•Updated 8:38
Democrats have won both chambers of the US Congress. For Europe, the big questions are tariffs and Ukraine, where Trump still holds much of his power.
Donald Trump has suffered one of the worst defeats of his political career, after Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress to the Democrats in a vote that turned into a verdict on his presidency.
By 07:40 CET, Democrats had gained 25 seats in the House of Representatives, taking them to 220, two more than the 218 needed for a majority.
In the Senate, they took seven seats from the Republicans, including in Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Maine.
High prices weighed heavily on voters. About two-thirds said in an election-day survey that Trump's tariffs had hurt the economy.
The president said he would accept the results, but added: "I don't view it as a hit on me."
He also made clear he would use his veto to block the Democrats' agenda, posting a picture of a red cap with the word "VETO" stitched on it.
But how much can a Democratic Congress really change for Europe and for markets?
Will a Democratic Congress end the tariff threat to Europe?
Probably not, because Trump's tariffs no longer depend on Congress.
After the Supreme Court struck down his emergency tariffs in February, the administration moved them under Section 301 of US trade law. That route lets the president act without a vote by lawmakers.
Democrats can hold hearings and slow down his nominees, but they cannot easily take that power away.
James Smith, developed markets economist at Dutch bank ING, believes a divided Washington could even push the president to rely on it more.
"Like foreign policy, trade is another power the president can wield unilaterally without Congress," Smith said in a note before the vote.
He did not rule out new tariffs aimed at Europe, which he said would matter a lot for US inflation and for the Federal Reserve.
What happens to US support for Ukraine?
Democrats will chair the Senate committees and decide which of Trump's nominees get confirmed when the new Congress takes office in January. Many of them also want to approve new money for Ukraine.
The harder part is getting that money spent. Over the past two years, the White House has cancelled funds already approved by Congress by holding them back until the end of the fiscal year, when they expire.
"In practice, this means that a Democratic Congress could write money for Ukraine or development aid into law and the president might not spend it," Nevada Joan Lee, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said in a commentary last month.
Her advice to European governments is to count only on money that actually arrives.
"Europeans should treat earmarked funds as intent, not commitment," Lee said.
How did markets react?
Investors were mostly calm.
The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1232 by 07:00 CET, as the dollar weakened against other major currencies. Gold gained 2% to $4,011 an ounce, back above $4,000, and silver rose 3.4% to $51.49.
Stock futures were slightly lower on both sides of the Atlantic. S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4%, while futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 and Germany's DAX were down about 0.5% ahead of the open.
US government bonds rallied. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 2.9 basis points to 4.94%, the 2-year yield slipped to 4.61% and the 30-year yield to 5.32%. Germany's 10-year Bund yield had closed on Tuesday at 3.33%, before the results came in.
Bitcoin was little changed at around $77,700, and Brent crude traded near $104 a barrel.
Is a divided Washington good for investors?
Markets have usually liked it. When the White House and Congress disagree, fewer big laws get passed, and that means fewer surprises.
History also favours bondholders. In the three months after past midterm elections, 10-year Treasury yields have fallen by about 20 to 25 basis points on average, according to Luca Bindelli, head of investment strategy at Swiss private bank Lombard Odier.
"We think that a Democratic sweep would be neutral to mildly positive for the fiscal outlook. Congress could restrain Trump's expansionary agenda and, with it, the deficit," Diego Barnuevo, market analyst at payments company Ebury, said in emailed comments.
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, is more cautious.
"Wall Street traditionally welcomes political gridlock because it reduces the likelihood that Congress will pass extremist legislation. But this time could be different," Yardeni said in a note on Monday.
His concern is the debt ceiling, the legal cap on how much the US government can borrow. A divided Washington will still have to agree to raise it, and a long fight over it could push borrowing costs up rather than down. Barnuevo expects the limit to become binding at some point in 2027.
What next for the euro?
Currency analysts doubt the election will change much for long. For the dollar, the Federal Reserve still matters more than Congress.
"The greenback continues to respond predominantly to the Fed story, which shouldn't face an immediate and direct impact from the midterm result," Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, and his colleagues said in a note on Tuesday.
The euro also has problems of its own. Energy prices are still high largely due to the war with Iran, ING expects eurozone inflation to stay around 4%, and investors are demanding more to hold French government bonds.
The new Congress takes office in January. Until then, Trump retains Republican majorities in both chambers, and even after that, his veto pen will still be on the desk.
US LNG exports climbed to their second-highest monthly level on record in October as producers boosted output to capture strong European demand and multi-year-high natural gas prices, according to LSEG data.
Exports to Europe rose to 6.89 million metric tons in October, up nearly 1 million tons from 5.91 MT in September, LSEG ship-tracking data showed.
The increase reflected Europe’s need to secure supplies ahead of winter and the narrowing price gap between Europe and Asia.
The European TTF benchmark and the Asian JKM benchmark both averaged about $28 per million British thermal units in October, sharply above September levels and among the highest prices since the energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Exports from the Golden Pass LNG plant in Texas, owned by QatarEnergy and Exxon Mobil, doubled to four cargoes in October, ship-tracking data showed.
US LNG exports to Asia were little changed from September despite October having one additional calendar day. Asian buyers imported 2.73 MT in October, compared with 2.84 MT in September.
Egypt remained a significant buyer of US LNG, importing 0.68 MT in October, unchanged from September.
Exports to Latin America also increased, rising to 0.68 MT in October from 0.53 MT a month earlier.
About 0.59 MT of LNG departed US export terminals in October without a final destination, remaining on the water awaiting potential buyers, the ship-tracking data showed.
(Reporting by Curtis Williams in Houston; Editing by Nathan Crooks and Bill Berkrot)
Brent crude plunged more than $6 per barrel Tuesday morning, falling from $107.24 to $100.80 before recovering to around $104 shortly after 10 a.m. Eastern, as traders reacted to a succession of conflicting reports about U.S.-Iran peace negotiations.
The selloff followed Monday's 7.6% decline, which left Brent at $104.77. Prices initially rebounded overnight after reports of U.S. strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, near the Strait of Hormuz, before reversing sharply Tuesday morning.
The first abrupt decline began moments before a Bloomberg-attributed breaking headline announcing that Iran's supreme leader had authorized negotiations on previously non-negotiable issues.
But that was a stronger claim than Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's statement that the supreme leader had only granted the government additional negotiating authority. Pezeshkian had not specified which issues might be discussed.
Questions subsequently emerged about whether the Bloomberg headline accurately reflected the Iranian statement.
Brent suffered another steep drop around 8:20 a.m, right around the time of an Al Jazeera report that Washington had approved a draft agreement presented through Qatari mediators.
Additional reports surfaced that Washington and Tehran had made concessions involving Iran's nuclear program and frozen assets, citing Al Araby Al Jadeed. The Al Araby report described a proposed exchange of Iranian nuclear concessions for the release of frozen funds.
But a senior Iranian official has rejected the claim that there was a breakthrough over concessions, and clarified that an agreement was indeed still far off. Tehran’s public position has been and still is that its conditions must be met before Hormuz can reopen, and nuclear negotiations can begin only after those are met.
In other words, nothing substantial has officially changed.
Qatar confirmed that both sides were reviewing proposals, and no agreement has been announced.
The competing reports help explain the uncertainty surrounding Tuesday's trading, although they do not establish what caused either sharp decline. Momentum trading and automated orders may have amplified the moves.
By midmorning, Brent had recovered nearly $3 from its session low. The reported diplomatic breakthroughs remain unverified, and the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted.
A Ukrainian long-range drone hit a Transneft oil pumping station near Prosvet in Russia’s Samara region, setting several oil tanks on fire and sending a tall plume of black smoke into the sky, according to regional reports.
A long-range Ukrainian drone struck a Transneft oil pumping facility overnight in Russia’s Samara region, igniting a major fire at fuel tanks near the village of Prosvet, according to regional reporting.
The target was the Samara Linear Production and Dispatch Station, part of the Transneft pipeline system that moves crude through central Russia. Footage from the area shows oil tanks burning and a dense black column of smoke rising for kilometers. There were no immediate official figures on the extent of damage or on any casualties.
Transneft operates most of Russia’s crude oil pipelines, including routes that feed domestic refineries and export channels. Stations like the one in Samara play a role in maintaining pressure and flow along these lines. A hit on such a node can force flow adjustments or repairs, depending on how much equipment is damaged.
For people living and working nearby, the attack turned an industrial site into a large fire scene. Oil tank fires carry the risk of further explosions and require specialized firefighting teams, but local authorities have not yet released details about the emergency response or possible injuries.
The strike highlights Ukraine’s ability to use long-range drones to reach infrastructure deep inside Russia. Ukrainian forces have previously used similar systems against targets such as airbases, depots, and logistics hubs in other Russian regions. The Samara attack adds another distant energy facility to that list.
This comes as Russia continues its own strikes on Ukraine’s energy and fuel infrastructure. Moscow has used bombers, cruise missiles, and drones against Ukrainian power plants and depots, while Kyiv relies on smaller, cheaper unmanned aircraft to probe Russia’s much larger network.
Whether this attack has a lasting impact on Russia’s oil logistics will depend on how quickly Transneft can contain the fire and repair damage, and whether similar strikes follow against other pumping and storage sites. Any confirmed disruptions to flows through Samara would offer a clearer measure of the operational effect beyond the images of burning tanks.
November 1, 2026 4:14 pm
ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka may see a record-high spending on fuel imports this year due to high global oil prices following the Middle Eastern conflict despite declining monthly fuel import bills, analysts say.
Sri Lanka saw its highest fuel import bill of US$5,040 million in 2012 amid the island nation’s severe trade deficit that led to an IMF program.
The island nation has already spent US$4,487.2 million on fuel imports in the first nine months of the year, which is more than 51 percent higher than last year’s US$2,961.3 million in the same period.
The Central Bank in its latest September external trade deficit report said monthly expenditure on fuel imports declined for the fifth consecutive month in September 2026.
Sri Lanka produces no fuel and mainly depends on imports. The island nation’s successive governments subsidized the fuel when the global prices were high, leading the state-owned fuel retailer Ceylon Petroleum Corporation into a debt crisis before the island nation’s economy went bankrupt.
However, under the current IMF programme, the government must implement market-reflective pricing.
Analysts expect this year’s fuel bill to end up near US$5.5 billion if the current Middle Eastern conflict prolongs until the end of this year.
The higher fuel bill has also exerted pressure on the rupee currency, which has fallen around 6.8 percent so far this year.
Sri Lanka’s inability to significantly trim its fuel import bill stems from deep-rooted structural dependencies across its energy, transportation, and industrial sectors.
Despite policy ambitions to accelerate renewable energy deployment, thermal power generation remains vital during dry seasons to prevent grid collapses and meet baseline electricity demand, keeping the Ceylon Electricity Board heavily reliant on imported heavy fuel and diesel.
Furthermore, the country’s transport sector is overwhelmingly fossil-fuel-driven, with limited electrification in public transit and an expanding vehicle fleet that continually elevates daily fuel consumption.
These domestic consumption pressures are further compounded by global commodity price volatility and geopolitical instability in key oil-producing regions like the Middle East, which periodically drive up international crude and refined product prices.
Coupled with legacy data architecture gaps that complicate the implementation of targeted end-user subsidies, the state has periodically resorted to broad price cushions to prevent economic paralysis, ultimately locking Sri Lanka into high foreign exchange outlays whenever global oil markets spike. (Colombo/November 01/2026)
Posco Future M’s cathode materials plant in Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province.
Posco Future M Company, the specialty chemicals unit of South Korea’s Posco Group, has signed a preliminary agreement with local battery manufacturer LG Energy Solution Company (LGES) to supply 720,000 tons of battery materials over a period of seven years, according to local reports.
The two companies are scheduled to sign a final agreement by the end of the year, once all legal formalities are completed, with deliveries expected to start in 2027. Posco will expand the range of battery materials it supplies to LGES, to include lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathodes and synthetic graphite anodes for the first time, as well as ultra-high-nickel cathodes. These materials will help LGES respond to growing demand for lower-cost electric vehicle (EV) batteries, growing demand for energy storage systems (ESS), and changing global trade regulations.
The two companies have also agreed to strengthen their collaboration on next-generation battery technologies, including sodium-ion batteries and silicon anodes.
The two companies have so far mainly focused their collaboration on nickel-cobalt-manganese cathode materials.
https://www.just-auto.com/news/posco-to-supply-new-battery-materials-to-lges/
The Democratic Republic of Congo has launched a probe into suspected unlawful extraction after officials impounded thousands of tonnes of copper and cobalt during a broadening enforcement push in the nation's resource-rich southeastern region, Mining.com reported. According to a Monday statement from the justice ministry on X, a task force including police, military personnel and mines ministry representatives seized over 500 trucks along with other vehicles and equipment in Lualaba and Haut-Katanga provinces.
Justice Minister Guillaume Ngefa Atondoko Andali called for the investigation after the panel detected suspected mining fraud, unlicensed exploitation of mineral resources and smuggling of minerals. The move underscores Congo's difficulty in policing illegal activity on concessions held by major global companies. As the world's top cobalt producer and second-largest copper producer, the country's enforcement efforts are vital to safeguarding operations that feed international metals markets.
Confiscations at Licensed Sites
The seizures occurred at multiple locations, among them Menda in Lualaba province, where Eurasian Resources Group holds mining licences. The company has raised complaints in recent months about unlawful mining on its concessions, including at its flagship Metalkol copper-cobalt operation.
https://www.indexbox.io/blog/congo-launches-probe-after-major-seizures-in-illegal-mining-crackdown/
Includes 9 Metres Averaging 3.23% Cu and 16.7 g/t Ag
MONTREAL, Nov. 03, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Osisko Metals Incorporated (the "Company” or "OsiskoMetals”) ( TSX: OM ; OTCQX: OMZNF ; FRANKFURT: 0B51 ) is pleased to announce new analytical results from the ongoing 2026 drill program at the Gaspé Copper Project, located in the Gaspé Peninsula of Eastern Québec. Results are presented below (see Table 1), and include 38 mineralized intercepts from 15 drill holes. Reported "infill” intercepts are located within the 2026 MRE model (see April 14, 2026 news release), focused on upgrading Inferred Mineral Resources to Measured or Indicated categories, as applicable. "Expansion” intercepts are located outside the 2026 MRE model and comprise either i) in-pit expansion, which offers potential to convert in-pit waste into additional resources within the 2026 MRE Whittle pit; or ii) out-of-pit expansion, consisting of mineralization located outside the 2026 MRE Whittle pit, which may potentially lead to the definition of new resources. Some of the reported intercepts may have contiguous shallower infill as well as deeper in-pit expansion (noted as "Both”). Maps showing hole locations are available at www.osiskometals.com.
Osisko Metals Chief Executive Officer Robert Wares commented: "Today’s results, particularly drill holes 30-1270 and 30-1272, show once again strong results from the southern end of the 2026 MRE model. Furthermore, drill hole 30-1260, which is the most southerly hole drilled to date at Needle Mountain (out-of-pit expansion), located approximately 400 metres southwest of the current 2026 MRE pit boundary, returned 121 metres averaging 0.42% Cu at the level of the B and C Zones, indicating the system continues to be well mineralized and open to the south.”
Highlights
314.0 metres averaging 0.44% Cu (infill) in DDH 30-1272; includes 9.0 metres averaging 3.23% Cu and 16.7 g/t Ag
(infill) in DDH 30-1272; includes 240.5 metres averaging 0.44% Cu (infill) in DDH 30-1270
(infill) in DDH 30-1270 552.5 metres averaging 0.30% Cu (infill) in DDH 30-1269
(infill) in DDH 30-1269 142.6 metres averaging 0.34% Cu (infill) in DDH 30-1274
(infill) in DDH 30-1274 121.5 metres averaging 0.42% Cu (out-of-pit expansion) in DDH 30-1260
(out-of-pit expansion) in DDH 30-1260 87.5 metres averaging 0.48% Cu (out-of-pit expansion) in DDH 30-1268; includes 10.7 metres averaging 1.98% Cu and 9.0 g/t Ag
(out-of-pit expansion) in DDH 30-1268; includes 85.5 metres averaging 0.42% Cu (out-of-pit expansion) in DDH 30-1265
BHP stock faces weaker copper output after a disruption-heavy quarter. Iron ore and growth projects provide support as guidance remains unchanged.
BHP's September-quarter review showed a sharp copper setback but no change to its fiscal 2027 production outlook. The operational review, released on October 20, also highlighted stronger iron ore and coal production and further progress on major growth projects.
According to the BHP operational review, copper production fell 19 percent year over year to 400.7 kt in the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Planned lower grades and maintenance combined with severe weather in Chile, safety stoppages and a conveyor failure at Carrapateena.
Mixed production across commodities
Escondida produced 252.6 kt of copper, down 23 percent year over year, while Spence output fell 15 percent to 47.4 kt. Antamina partly offset the decline with production of 40.0 kt, an 18 percent increase.
Iron ore production rose 4 percent to 66.5 Mt, and Western Australia Iron Ore output increased 4 percent to 64.3 Mt. BMA steelmaking coal production edged up 1 percent to 4.9 Mt, while NSW Energy Coal rose 26 percent to 4.4 Mt.
Guidance and growth remain in focus
BHP retained fiscal 2027 copper guidance of 1,650 to 1,800 kt. The company also approved USD 0.8 billion of pre-commitment funding for the Escondida New Concentrator. Jansen Stage 1 was 87 percent complete and remained on track for first potash production in mid-2027.
The review added an updated Olympic Dam underground block-cave mineral resource of 10,730 Mt at 0.59 percent copper. BHP said the resource contains estimated metals including 88.1 Mt of copper, though these contained-metal figures are not estimates of recoverable metal.
BHP stock traded at EUR 71.25 on Lang & Schwarz at 3:12 p.m. CET on Tuesday, November 3, 2026; the real-time quote of BHP stock is updated continuously.
Investors will next focus on whether production recovers across Chilean copper operations while BHP advances its potash and Olympic Dam growth plans.
Commodity markets and Australian miners remain influenced by demand from industrial activity and infrastructure investment; the S&P/ASX 200 market environment provides the relevant regional backdrop.
China's rare earth market has generally remained stable with a slight downward bias; amid a complex interplay of bullish and bearish factors, trading activity between buyers and sellers has been lackluster. In the light rare earth segment, prices for praseodymium-neodymium have continued to decline due to sluggish demand. In the heavy rare earth segment, prices have largely traded sideways, with dysprosium-iron alloy showing relative price stability, supported by essential, immediate demand.
In terms of news, in September 2026, the crude steel production of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 142.4 million tons, decreased by 0.2% year-on-year. Among them, China's crude steel production was 73.59 million tons, increased by 0.1% year-on-year; the estimated crude steel production of the United States was 7.2 million tons, increased by 4.3% year-on-year; Japan's crude steel production was 6.3 million tons, decreased by 0.6% year-on-year; and South Korea's crude steel production was 5.2 million tons, increased by 3.6% year-on-year.
Posted on 03 Nov 2026
Shagang Group (Shagang), China's leading privately owned steelmaker and the country's largest electric-arc-furnace (EAF) steel producer, has decided to keep its list prices for long steel products unchanged for November 1-10 sales from those for the final eleven days of October, according to the company's latest announcement on November 1.
The Zhangjiagang-based steel group adjusts its list prices for long products, including rebar, three times a month to better reflect market conditions, as reported.
Under the latest pricing policy, Shagang will continue to offer HRB400 16-20mm rebar at Yuan 3,450/tonne ($519/t), its HPB300 6-10mm wire rod stays listed at Yuan 3,490/t, and HRB400 8-10mm bar-in-coil is still at Yuan 3,580/t. All prices are EXW and include the 13% VAT, according to the announcement.
The decision to keep its ex-works prices for longs unchanged reflected the steel giant's cautious outlook for the near-term market, as buying activity among end users such as construction firms during the traditional September-October peak consumption season had fallen short of expectations, a Shanghai-based analyst commented.
Spot trading of construction steel items, including rebar, wire rod and bar-in-coil, among the 237 trading houses under Mysteel's tracking averaged 89,728 tonnes/day over October 21-31, down by 1% from October 11-20 and 12.9% from the same period last year.
The sluggish trading activity continued to weigh on market sentiment and exert downward pressure on long steel prices. Mysteel assessed the spot price of Shagang-brand HRB400E 20mm rebar in Shanghai at Yuan 3,140/t on October 30, down by Yuan 40/t from October 20.
In the meantime, Shagang has also held its flat product prices steady for November sales, according to another statement. As a result, the mill's prices for Q235 5.5*1500mm and SPHC 4.0*1250mm hot-rolled coils continued to stay at Yuan 3,650/t and Yuan 3,660/t respectively for this month, both including the 13% VAT.
Meanwhile, Zenith Steel and Jiangsu Yonggang Group, two other major steelmakers based in East China's Jiangsu province, also kept their list prices for long steel products unchanged for the same sales period, reflecting a similarly cautious pricing stance, Mysteel Global learned.
Source:Mysteel Global
Active construction is scheduled to begin at the end of this year
American steelmaker U. S. Steel, a subsidiary of Japan’s Nippon Steel, has started construction of a $1.9 billion direct reduced iron (DRI) plant in Osceola, Arkansas. This was reported by Recycling Today.
The project will be the first phase of a large-scale investment in the region and will create around 200 permanent high-paying jobs. The plant is described as an innovative next-generation facility. Active construction is scheduled to begin at the end of 2026, with preliminary preparation already underway at the site.
The plant is being built next to the Big River Steel 2 complex, in which U. S. Steel previously invested $3 billion and which started producing steel in 2024. The new facility will link U. S. Steel’s iron ore deposits in Minnesota with its electric arc furnaces (EAF) in Arkansas.
DRI technology involves removing oxygen from iron ore without melting it, which makes it possible to obtain high-quality feedstock. It serves as a full-fledged substitute for prime scrap, improving supply reliability and reducing production costs. The resulting feedstock can also be pressed into hot briquetted iron (HBI) for further use at the Big River site or for transportation to other facilities. The finished products will supply the automotive industry, household appliance manufacturing and solar energy.
The launch of iron-bearing feedstock production backed by Japanese and Indian capital (in particular, a similar project by a group of investors led by Essar in Iowa) will create direct competition for US EAF steelmakers such as Nucor Corp., Steel Dynamics Inc. and CMC.
As GMK Center reported earlier, according to Midrex estimates, global demand for DRI will reach 260 million tonnes by 2035 and 500 million tonnes by 2050. More than half of global demand in 2035 will come from Europe, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
https://gmk.center/en/news/us-steel-has-started-construction-of-a-1-9-billion-dri-plant/
The American steel producer Nucor has once again raised its spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled coils by $10 per short tonne compared with the previous week. This is stated in the company’s letter to customers dated 2 November.
The new bid price stands at $1,280 per short tonne. At the same time, the CSP for the California Steel Industries (CSI) joint venture also rose by $10 per short tonne compared with the previous week, to $1,350/t.
According to the company’s statement, lead times for spot orders remain unchanged at three to five weeks. The new announcement marked Nucor’s fifteenth consecutive weekly CSP increase.
According to Kallanish, as of 30 October, domestic HRC prices in the US stood at $1,300–1,340 per short tonne. During the corresponding week in 2025, spot prices for hot-rolled coils ranged from $825 to $865 per short tonne.
According to the latest SMU survey, flat steel market participants increasingly expect HRC prices to keep rising through the end of the year and beyond. However, foreign suppliers are offering competitive prices, and many service centers are still purchasing imported products to secure additional tonnage.
As a reminder, in October the United States experienced a shortage of spot offers for flat steel, which is pushing up prices for hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils.
As GMK Center reported earlier, domestic steel prices in the US rose to their highest level in more than four years. The main driver of the increase was the restriction of imports following the introduction of trade tariffs by President Donald Trump.
https://gmk.center/en/news/nucor-has-raised-the-price-of-hot-rolled-coils-by-10-t/amp/